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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Feb 07, 2025 (Fri)

HSBC forecasts strong long-term shipbuilding market

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding factory in China (from the company’s website)

　In a recently released report on the global shipbuilding industry, HSBC Global Research, the resear ・・・続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80In+a+recently+released+report+on+the+global+shipbuilding+industry%2C+%3Cb%3EHSBC%3C%2Fb%3E+Global+Research%2C+the+research+division+of+British+financial+giant+%3Cb%3EHSBC%3C%2Fb%3E%2C+predicted+that+the+current+boom+in+the+new+shipbuilding+market+is+set+to+continue+for+the+long+term.+In+the+short+term%2C+the+pace+of+orders+for+new+ships+will+slow+due+to+a+shortage+of+slipways+at+shipyards+and+shipowners+assessing+fuel+conversion+plans.+It+predicts+that+the+figure+peaked+in+2024%2C+at+the+highest+level+since+the+shipping+boom+period%2C+and+would+continue+to+decline+from+2025+onwards.+It+believes+the+market+will+hit+bottom+in+2028%2C+and+room+for+shipyards+to+expand+their+construction+capacity+will+be+limited.+In+this+situation%2C+the+replacement+of+existing+ships+with+new+fuel+ships+will+begin+in+earnest+from+the+end+of+the+2020s%2C+ushering+in+a+long-term+cycle+of+prosperity.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%3Cb%3EHSBC%3C%2Fb%3E+Global+Research+has+published+a+report+on+the+business+environment+for+the+global+shipbuilding+industry+titled+%E2%80%9CStructural+tailwinds+after+cyclical+upturn%E2%80%9C.+It+is+clearly+stated+in+the+report%2C+%E2%80%9CHistorically%2C+the+booming+cycle+in+the+new+shipbuilding+market+has+usually+lasted+for+three+to+five+years%2C+but+this+time+it+is+highly+likely+to+be+different.+We+are+confident+that+the+shipbuilding+industry+is+on+the+cusp+of+a+long-term+boom+cycle.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Orders+for+new+ships+reached+65.3+million+CGT+%28Compensated+Gross+Tonnage%29+in+2024%2C+up+34%25+from+the+previous+year%2C+the+highest+level+since+2007%2C+during+the+shipping+boom.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+its+short-+to+medium-term+predictions%2C+the+company+points+out+that+shipyards+will+shift+their+focus+from+receiving+more+orders+to+fulfilling+backlog+contracts+for+the+time+being%2C+as+major+shipyards+around+the+world+have+secured+ample+orderbooks+for+up+to+four+to+five+years+into+the+future.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Shipowners+also+face+uncertainty+regarding+the+supply+of+new+fuels+and+the+technology+required+to+make+ships+zero-emission.+For+this+reason%2C+shipyards+are+taking+a+cautious+approach+to+fleet+expansion.+Therefore%2C+the+company+expects+order+volume+to+continue+to+decline+after+2025.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Order+volume+is+expected+to+decline+for+the+time+being+due+to+factors+including+a+decline+in+the+container+shipping+market%2C+which+had+driven+growth+in+recent+years.+It+is+expected+to+bottom+out+in+2028.+After+that%2C+from+the+end+of+the+2020s%2C+it+is+expected+that+%E2%80%9Cfleet+renewal+toward+net-zero+GHG+%28greenhouse+gas%29+emissions+will+begin+in+earnest.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Based+on+these+assumptions%2C+the+forecast+for+new+ship+orders+from+2025+to+2030+is+to+range+from+37+million+CGT+to+59+million+CGT%2C+with+an+annual+average+of+approximately+47+million+CGT.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80This+average+annual+order+volume+is+more+than+40%25+higher+than+the+annual+average+from+2014+to+2019%2C+when+it+was+around+33+million+CGT.+Order+volume+is+expected+to+decline+from+2025+to+2028+compared+to+the+peak+in+202+4%2C+but+it+will+remain+at+the+high+level+through+2030.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+the+long-term+outlook+beyond+2030%2C+it+claims+that+%E2%80%9Cthe+current+boom+cycle+in+the+new+shipbuilding+market+is+likely+to+be+prolonged.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+reasons+for+this+include+the+fact+that+demand+for+new+fuel+ships+will+continue+for+the+long+term+and+that+there+is+limited+room+for+expansion+of+shipbuilding+capacity+at+shipyards%2C+which+is+already+shrinking+from+its+peak.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+the+former%2C+the+report+presented+estimates+that+3%2C000+conventional+fuel+ships+annually%2C+a+total+of+more+than+60%2C000+ships%2C+will+be+gradually+replaced+with+new+fuel+ships+over+the+next+20+years%2C+in+order+to+achieve+the+IMO%E2%80%99s+%28International+Maritime+Organization%29+goal+of+%E2%80%9Cnet+zero+GHG+emissions+by+around+2050.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+latter+explains+that+the+number+of+global+shipyards+in+operation+at+the+end+of+2024+has+fallen+by+52%25+from+its+peak+in+2008.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+annual+construction+capacity+for+the+period+was+48+million+CGT%2C+which+is+on+the+rise+due+to+the+restart+of+some+dormant+yards+and+an+increase+in+operations+at+existing+shipyards.+However%2C+it+is+still+about+30%25+lower+than+the+peak+in+2011.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Furthermore%2C+it+points+out%2C+saying%2C+%E2%80%9CAny+large-scale+expansion+of+construction+capacity+by+opening+new+shipbuilding+businesses+is+unlikely+to+happen%2C+because+it+would+be+difficult+to+obtain+government+approval+for%2C+among+other+things%2C+environmental+reasons%2C+and+would+require+specialized+know-how+and+firm+support+from+customers.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80CGT+is+an+international+indicator+that+represents+shipbuilding+workload.+Coefficients+are+determined+for+each+class+and+type+of+ship%2C+and+the+calculation+is+performed+by+multiplying+the+ship%E2%80%99s+gross+tonnage+by+the+coefficient.+Compared+to+bulkers+and+tankers%2C+the+coefficient+is+set+higher+for+high+value-added+ships+such+as+LNG+%28liquefied+natural+gas%29+carriers+and+container+ships%2C+resulting+in+a+larger+CGT.+%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%82%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%99%E3%80%82%3Cbr%3E