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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Apr 14, 2025 (Mon)

‌【Trump shock (1)】The impact on container logistics

Among all shipping routes, container transport is said to be the one most affected by mutual tariffs

　The various policies being implemented one after another by U.S. President Trump are causing chaos ・・・続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80The+various+policies+being+implemented+one+after+another+by+U.S.+President+Trump+are+causing+chaos+around+the+world.+This+movement+is+by+no+means+unrelated+to+the+shipping%2C+logistics%2C+and+shipbuilding+industries%2C+including+port+entry+fees+for+China-related+ships%2C+measures+to+revive+the+U.S.+shipbuilding+industry%2C+and+reciprocal+tariffs.+In+fact%2C+some+believe+that+the+shock+could+be+comparable+to+the+Global+Financial+Crisis.+We+will+summarize+the+impact+on+container+logistics%2C+PCTCs%2C+energy+transport%2C+etc.%2C+as+well+as+the+policies+of+the+Trump+administration.+The+first+episode+is+about+container+logistics.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+Trump+administration%E2%80%99s+tariff+policy+is+having+a+major+impact+on+the+international+logistics+industry.+In+a+message+to+employees+on+April+9%2C+Mitsui-Soko+Group+CEO+%28Chief+Executive+Officer%29+Hirobumi+Koga+stated+his+view+that+%E2%80%9Cfor+us+as+a+logistics+company%2C+this+is+a+situation+that+must+be+viewed+as+the+biggest+emergency+since+the+coronavirus+pandemic.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+situation+is+changing+daily%2C+with+President+Trump+announcing+that+he+would+suspend+for+90+days+the+application+of+the+additional+reciprocal+tariffs+that+were+just+implemented+on+April+9+to+some+countries+and+regions.+Although+the+additional+tariffs+were+temporarily+frozen%2C+the+10%25+flat-rate+tariff+imposed+on+April+5+remained+in+place.+Additional+tariffs+on+China%2C+which+launched+retaliatory+measures%2C+have+risen+to+145%25.+On+April+10%2C+China+raised+its+tariff+rates+on+U.S.+goods+to+84%25%2C+raising+concerns+about+an+intensification+of+trade+friction+between+the+U.S.+and+China.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Hong+Kong%E2%80%99s+Linerlytica+analyzed+that+reciprocal+tariffs+will+account+for+51%25+of+total+U.S.+container+imports+in+2024+and+will+have+a+greater+impact+on+the+container+shipping+market+than+other+shipping+sectors.+In+terms+of+country+share+on+a+TEU+basis%2C+China+and+Vietnam+have+the+highest+share%2C+but+once+all+reciprocal+tariffs+are+applied%2C+there+will+be+little+room+to+substitute+for+procurement+from+these+two+countries.+There+is+a+huge+risk+of+stagflation+in+the+United+States.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+April+7%2C+Maersk+commented+that+%E2%80%9Cwe+expect+customers+to+be+somewhat+cautious+about+inventory+levels+until+greater+clarity+emerges%2C%E2%80%9C+suggesting+a+slowdown+in+cargo+movements.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80British+research+firm+Clarksons+Research+has+revised+down+its+forecast+for+container+ship+demand+in+March+to+negative+growth+of+0.2%25%2C+citing+a+decline+in+cargo+movements+particularly+on+Pacific+routes.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+April+9%2C+the+National+Retail+Federation+%28NRF%29+and+Hackett+Associates+revised+downward+their+forecast+for+retail-related+containerized+imports+for+May+through+August+to+a+20+to+30%25+decrease+compared+to+the+same+months+last+year.+They+indicated+that+for+the+whole+of+2025%2C+there+is+a+possibility+of+a+decrease+of+more+than+15%25+compared+to+the+previous+year.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80There+is+also+downward+pressure+on+container+freight+rates.+According+to+the+Shanghai+Shipping+Exchange%2C+container+freight+rates+from+Asia+to+North+America+were+%242%2C313+per+40-foot+container+as+of+April+4%2C+up+%24136+from+the+previous+week%2C+marking+the+second+consecutive+week+of+increases.+However%2C+some+Chinese+forwarders+are+predicting+that+prices+will+fall+to+around+%241%2C550+in+the+future.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+response%2C+container+shipping+companies+are+also+canceling+more+services%2C+according+to+Drewry.+Premier+Alliance%2C+consisting+of+Ocean+Network+Express+%28ONE%29%2C+HMM+and+Yang+Ming+Marine+Transport%2C+announced+on+April+8+that+it+would+again+postpone+the+start+of+operations+of+its+Asia-North+America+West+Coast+service+%E2%80%9CPN4.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80There+are+conflicting+ideas+regarding+routes+from+China%2FAsia+to+North+America.+Since+last+year%2C+there+have+been+moves+to+bring+forward+shipments+and+secure+inventory+in+anticipation+of+Trump%E2%80%99s+tariffs%2C+but+with+the+imposition+of+the+reciprocal+tariffs%2C+it+appears+that+some+emergency+shipments+have+been+made.+According+to+overseas+reports%2C+many+bookings+have+been+canceled+since+then%2C+and+there+is+also+a+tendency+for+the+U.S.+side+to+rush+to+switch+imports+from+China+before+the+deadline+for+the+partial+suspension+of+additional+tariffs.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Air+cargo+also+faces+a+problem%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Along+with+the+reciprocal+tariffs%2C+the+%E2%80%9Cde+minimis+rule%2C%E2%80%9C+which+exempts+small-value+cargo+valued+at+less+than+%24800+from+tariffs%2C+is+also+attracting+attention.+On+April+2%2C+President+Trump+signed+an+executive+order+suspending+the+application+of+the+rule+to+imports+from+China+and+Hong+Kong.+The+tax+exemption+was+scheduled+to+be+lifted+in+February%2C+but+was+postponed+because+the+system+could+not+keep+up.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80This+is+casting+a+shadow+over+the+air+cargo+market.+It+has+been+pointed+out+that+the+competitiveness+of+low-cost+e-commerce+sites+such+as+Temu+and+SHEIN%2C+which+are+based+in+China+and+have+rapidly+increased+their+sales+in+the+United+States+by+taking+advantage+of+duty-free+offers%2C+will+decline.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Cross-border+e-commerce+has+led+the+recovery+of+the+air+cargo+market%2C+which+had+stagnated+since+the+coronavirus+pandemic.+The+amount+of+cargo+loaded+at+Hong+Kong+airport+hit+a+record+high+last+year%2C+and+freight+rates+are+also+on+the+rise.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80If+low-cost+e-commerce+sales+in+the+US+decline%2C+the+supply+and+demand+balance+could+ease%2C+which+could+lead+to+lower+freight+rates.+Low-cost+e-commerce+companies+charter+large+freighters+to+transport+large+quantities+of+goods%2C+and+are+said+to+occupy+more+than+half+of+the+space+available+from+Asia+to+the+United+States.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+low-cost+e-commerce+products+are+extremely+cheap%2C+ranging+from+a+few+dollars+to+a+few+tens+of+dollars%2C+and+remain+competitive+even+after+the+tariffs+are+passed+on+to+the+product+price.+Few+people+in+the+air+cargo+industry+expect+sales+of+Temu+and+SHEIN%2C+which+have+already+established+themselves+in+the+U.S.+market%2C+to+fall+sharply.+It+is+also+said+that+both+companies+have+been+diversifying+their+import+routes+to+the+United+States+since+last+year+in+anticipation+of+increased+tariffs.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+U.S.+logistics+are+clogged%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80It%E2%80%99s+hard+to+predict+where+Trump%E2%80%99s+tariffs+will+lead.+Even+if+it+is+possible+to+foresee+the+situation%2C+rebuilding+the+supply+chain+%28SC%29+will+take+time.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CAt+this+stage%2C+all+we+can+do+is+listen+to+our+customers+%28manufacturers%2C+etc.%29.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CWe+are+stepping+up+interviews+with+shippers%2C+but+the+medium-term+policy+is+unclear.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80People+involved+with+shipping+companies+and+logistics+companies+all+agree.+For+the+time+being%2C+we+will+have+to+wait+and+see.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+future+course+of+trade+will+depend+on+negotiations+between+the+United+States+and+other+countries.+Following+the+US+administration%E2%80%99s+April+2+announcement+of+the+reciprocal+tariffs%2C+NX+Logistics+Research+Institute+and+Consulting+research+fellow+Mikio+Tasaka+said%2C+%E2%80%9CPresident+Trump+is+expected+to+take+various+measures+in+stages%2C+such+as+imposing+port+entry+fees+on+Chinese-related+ships%2C+while+keeping+an+eye+on+public+opinion+in+the+US.+Every+time+that+happens+again%2C+it+will+increase+volatility+in+the+U.S.+supply+chain.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Much+more+can+still+happen+in+the+future.+Each+time+this+happens%2C+cargo+movements+to+the+United+States+will+be+affected.+As+a+result%2C+logistics+in+the+United+States+could+become+congested.+It+is+also+possible+that+there+will+be+a+shift+away+from+the+United+States.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Preparing+for+unpredictable+risks+will+be+the+biggest+challenge+going+forward.+International+logistics+requires+greater+flexibility+and+speed+than+ever+before.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E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