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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Apr 17, 2025 (Thu)

‌【Market2025】VLCC market sluggish despite increased production

Deteriorating sentiment can be a negative factor

　The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market is sluggish. “OPEC Plus,” a group of OPEC (Organization ・・・続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80The+VLCC+%28Very+Large+Crude+Carrier%29+market+is+sluggish.+%E2%80%9COPEC+Plus%2C%E2%80%9D+a+group+of+OPEC+%28Organization+of+the+Petroleum+Exporting+Countries%29+member+and+non-member+countries%2C+has+begun+ship+chartering+for+May+loading%2C+which+is+the+subject+of+the+production+increase+recently+announced.+However%2C+freight+rates+on+the+Middle+East-China+trunk+line+are+in+the+low+50s+WS+%28Worldscale%29%2C+and+when+converted+into+charter+rates%2C+they+are+below+%2430%2C000+per+day%2C+which+is+generally+considered+the+break-even+point+when+using+VLSFO+%28Very+Low+Sulfur+Fuel+Oil%29.+The+reasons+for+this+are+thought+to+include+regular+maintenance+at+refineries+at+the+unloading+sites+and+a+deterioration+in+market+sentiment+due+to+U.S.+President+Trump%E2%80%99s+tariffs.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+April+3%2C+OPEC+Plus+announced+that+eight+volunteering+member+countries%2C+including+Saudi+Arabia%2C+would+increase+production+by+411%2C000+barrels+per+day+in+May.+The+411%2C000+barrels+per+day+figure+is+equivalent+to+more+than+six+VLCC+vessels+per+month%2C+which+could+boost+the+VLCC+market.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+mid-April%2C+negotiations+began+in+the+spot+charter+market+for+May+loadings+from+the+Middle+East%2C+where+oil-producing+countries+are+concentrated.+However%2C+a+market+source+sighed%2C+saying%2C+%E2%80%9CConsidering+that+an+increase+in+production+has+been+decided%2C+this+is+a+lackluster+development.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+the+latest+market+report%2C+the+WS+for+the+Middle+East-China+%28TD3C%29+trunk+line+was+53.40%2C+up+from+the+previous+trading+day%2C+but+remained+flat+with+a+0.22+point+increase.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+individual+contracts%2C+the+market+source+said%2C+%E2%80%9CAccording+to+our+research%2C+there+are+currently+15+contracts+for+May+loading.+The+rates+are+mainly+quoted+by+Chinese+charterers+and+the+details+are+often+unclear%2C+but+the+Middle+East-China+WS+is+around+52+to+53.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+Middle+East-China+WS52-53+is+calculated+as+about+%2428%2C000+per+day+using+VLSFO+%28very+low+sulfur+fuel+oil%29%2C+below+the+typical+break-even+point+of+%2430%2C000+per+day.+The+current+charter+rate+for+ships+using+high-sulfur+heavy+oil+%28ships+equipped+with+scrubbers%2C+or+exhaust+gas+cleaning+systems%29+is+said+to+be+around+%2436%2C000+per+day.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Demand+forecast+revised+downwards+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80As+for+the+reason+why+ship+chartering+is+not+picking+up+despite+the+start+of+increased+production%2C+the+source+cited+possible+reasons+including+the+fact+that+the+timing+of+increased+production+coincides+with+regular+repairs+at+refineries+in+Asia%2C+such+as+China%2C+where+oil+is+unloaded%2C+which+will+begin+in+earnest+in+early+spring%2C+as+well+as+a+worsening+sentiment+due+to+the+tariff+policies+of+the+Trump+administration.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+report+also+states+that+%E2%80%9Cthe+International+Energy+Agency+%28IEA%29+also+expects+oil+demand+to+grow+by+730%2C000+barrels+per+day+this+year%2C+revising+its+previous+forecast+down+by+300%2C000+barrels+per+day%2C%E2%80%9C+pointing+out+that+there+are+many+negative+factors+for+the+VLCC+market.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+the+other+hand%2C+it+is+also+true+that+a+report+by+US+firm+Poten+%26+Partners+predicts+that+of+all+major+tanker+types%2C+VLCCs+will+benefit+the+most+from+the+current+production+increase.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+source+said%2C+%E2%80%9CStem+confirmation+%28shipment+information%29+from+the+Middle+East+for+May+will+be+announced+soon%2C%E2%80%9C+and+plans+to+keep+a+close+eye+on+market+trends+after+the+stem+is+announced.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80OPEC+Plus+is+currently+implementing+a+plan+to+increase+production%2C+gradually+reducing+the+additional+voluntary+production+cuts+imposed+by+eight+countries+-+Saudi+Arabia%2C+Russia%2C+Iraq%2C+the+UAE+%28United+Arab+Emirates%29%2C+Kuwait%2C+Kazakhstan%2C+Algeria+and+Oman+-+from+November+2023+over+an+18-month+period%2C+starting+in+April+this+year.+The+411%2C000+barrels+per+day+increase+announced+on+April+3+is+roughly+three+times+the+amount+originally+planned+under+the+plan.+Immediately+after+the+announcement+of+the+production+increase%2C+there+were+voices+from+the+shipping+industry+expecting+an+increase+in+the+VLCC+market%2C+with+%E2%80%9Ccargo+volumes+increasing.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%82%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%99%E3%80%82%3Cbr%3E