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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Apr 28, 2025 (Mon)

Container traffic in 2025 to decline first time since coronavirus pandemic due to U.S. tariffs, Drewry

North American port volumes expected to fall by about 6% in 2025

　On April 24, British maritime research company Drewry held a webinar on the latest trends in the co ・・・続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80On+April+24%2C+British+maritime+research+company+%3Cb%3EDrewry%3C%2Fb%3E+held+a+webinar+on+the+latest+trends+in+the+container+shipping+market.+Amid+growing+concerns+about+a+slowdown+in+the+global+economy+due+to+factors+such+as+U.S.+tariff+policies%2C+the+company+predicts+that+global+container+handling+volume+this+year+will+be+down+1%25+compared+to+last+year.+It+forecasts+that+the+decline+will+be+at+the+same+level+as+the+decline+caused+by+the+coronavirus+pandemic+in+2020.+By+region%2C+container+cargo+handling+volume+at+North+American+ports+is+expected+to+remain+sluggish%2C+declining+5.5%25+in+2025+and+4.6%25+in+2026%2C+while+Greater+China+is+expected+to+see+a+4.8%25+decline+in+2025%2C+but+will+recover+to+a+1.6%25+increase+in+2026+due+to+a+shift+to+other+markets.+%3Cbr%3E+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+the+current+market+environment%2C+%3Cb%3EDrewry%3C%2Fb%3E+pointed+out+that+%E2%80%9Cthe+situation+is+more+uncertain+than+when+the+coronavirus+outbreak+first+began%2C+making+market+forecasts+extremely+limited.%E2%80%9C+Even+if+a+decline+in+shipping+volumes+to+the+United+States+leads+to+increased+trade+with+other+countries%2C+causing+temporary+disruptions+such+as+port+congestion+and+space+shortages%2C+%E2%80%9Cthe+benefits+will+be+limited+and+will+not+be+enough+to+compensate+for+the+decline+in+overall+demand%2C%E2%80%9C+the+company+said.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+the+risk+of+oversupply%2C+adjustments+are+expected+to+be+made+by+blank+sailings+to+the+United+States%2C+but+this+is+only+a+short-term+measure+and+a+reduction+in+fleet+size+is+inevitable+in+the+medium+to+long+term.+It+said+there+was+a+possibility+that+ships+would+be+laid+up+or+old+ships+would+be+scrapped%2C+and+that+deliveries+of+new+ships+would+be+delayed+or+contracts+would+be+canceled.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Port+entry+fees+passed+on+to+penalties+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+the+new+port+entry+fees+that+the+United+States+will+impose+on+Chinese-related+ships%2C+%3Cb%3EDrewry%3C%2Fb%3E+stated%2C+%E2%80%9CThese+fees+will+essentially+shut+out+Chinese+shipping+companies+from+the+market.%E2%80%9C+On+routes+from+Asia+to+the+west+coast+of+North+America%2C+if+non-Chinese+shipping+companies+using+Chinese-built+ships+were+to+pass+on+the+full+port+entry+fee+to+shippers%2C+the+additional+cost+per+40-foot+container+would+be+estimated+at+approximately+%24180.+This+is+based+on+an+average+of+a+9%2C000+TEU+15%2C000+net+ton+ship%2C+85%25+loaded+with+40-foot+containers%2C+making+6.5+voyages+per+year%2C+and+is+equivalent+to+approximately+7%25+of+the+current+spot+freight+rate+between+Shanghai+and+Los+Angeles+%28%3Cb%3EDrewry%3C%2Fb%3E%E2%80%99s+World+Container+Index+%28WCI%29%29.+Port+entry+fees+are+set+to+increase+gradually+in+the+future%2C+reaching+%24338+in+2028.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+the+other+hand%2C+if+China%E2%80%99s+COSCO+and+Hong+Kong%E2%80%99s+OOCL+were+to+similarly+pass+on+the+full+cost+to+shippers%2C+the+additional+costs+would+reach+%24511+per+40-foot+container+as+of+October+2025%2C+equivalent+to+19%25+of+the+WCI.+The+burden+is+expected+to+rise+to+about+%241%2C400+by+April+2028%2C+putting+Chinese+shipping+companies+at+a+significant+competitive+disadvantage%2C+the+company+said.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+light+of+this+situation%2C+it+is+expected+that+many+shipping+companies+will+begin+to+remove+Chinese-built+ships+from+US+routes+and+replace+them+with+ships+built+in+South+Korea%2C+Japan%2C+and+other+countries.+On+the+other+hand%2C+with+regard+to+the+scrapping+of+old+ships%2C+there+are+concerns+that+the+rising+asset+values+of+ships+built+outside+of+China+will+lead+to+an+increase+in+the+number+of+ships+continuing+to+operate+without+being+scrapped%2C+leading+to+market+imbalances.+As+of+March+2025%2C+the+tonnage+of+container+ships+that+were+more+than+20+years+old+was+approximately+3.5+million+TEUs%2C+of+which+only+6%25+were+built+in+China.+If+the+policy+of+preferential+treatment+for+non-Chinese-built+ships+continues%2C+options+for+adjusting+supply+by+scrapping+old+ships+may+be+limited%2C+the+company+said.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+the+operation+of+the+alliance%2C+it+is+anticipated+that+Chinese+shipping+companies+will+be+in+charge+of+Asia-Europe+routes%2C+which+are+not+subject+to+port+entry+fees%2C+while+other+shipping+companies+will+be+responsible+for+US+routes.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Reviewing+supply+sources+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+%3Cb%3EDrewry%3C%2Fb%3E+survey+of+shippers+found+that+many+large+companies+are+considering+moving+suppliers+and+production+out+of+China.+The+company+predicts+that+containerized+cargo+volume+bound+for+the+United+States+from+countries+other+than+China+will+increase%2C+with+countries+such+as+India%2C+Brazil%2C+Vietnam%2C+Malaysia%2C+Poland+and+T%C3%BCrkiye+set+to+benefit.+%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%82%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%99%E3%80%82%3Cbr%3E