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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily May 08, 2025 (Thu)

‌【Market2025】Impact of oil production increase on VLCC is still unclear

The break-even point is covered

　With “OPEC Plus,” a group made up of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) membe ・・・続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80With+%E2%80%9COPEC+Plus%2C%E2%80%9D+a+group+made+up+of+OPEC+%28Organization+of+the+Petroleum+Exporting+Countries%29+member+and+non-member+countries%2C+announcing+an+increase+in+production+for+the+second+consecutive+month%2C+attention+is+focused+on+the+impact+this+will+have+on+the+market+for+VLCCs+%28Very+Large+Crude+Carrier%29%2C+which+transport+crude+oil.+Generally%2C+increased+production+means+more+cargo+volume%2C+which+has+a+positive+effect+on+the+VLCC+market.+However%2C+demand+for+crude+oil+is+weak%2C+and+there+are+ships+without+specific+contracts+in+the+Middle+East%2C+where+cargoes+are+loaded%2C+that+are+unable+to+make+any+deals.+The+number+has+already+reached+about+70+ships%2C+and+there+is+the+possibility+that+it+will+grow+even+larger.+It+is+unclear+to+what+extent+additional+production+increases+will+contribute+to+an+improvement+in+market+prices+amid+sluggish+crude+oil+demand.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CBasically%2C+cargo+%28crude+oil%29+demand+will+underpin+the+VLCC+market.+Even+if+a+production+increase+is+decided+amid+sluggish+crude+oil+demand+in+major+oil-unloading+ports+such+as+China+and+India%2C+it+is+difficult+to+say+to+what+extent+it+will+be+able+to+boost+the+VLCC+market.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Market+participants+made+these+comments+following+the+decision+by+OPEC+Plus+countries+on+May+3+to+increase+production+by+411%2C000+barrels+per+day+in+June.+This+marks+the+second+consecutive+month+of+production+increase+of+this+magnitude%2C+following+an+increase+in+May.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Meanwhile%2C+demand+for+crude+oil+is+sluggish.+Last+month%2C+the+International+Energy+Agency+%28IEA%29+projected+oil+demand+growth+this+year+to+be+730%2C000+barrels+per+day%2C+down+300%2C000+barrels+from+its+previous+forecast.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80An+increase+of+411%2C000+barrels+per+day+would+be+equivalent+to+about+six+ships%E2%80%99+worth+of+cargo+per+month+if+all+of+it+were+transported+by+VLCC.+Increasing+transport+demand+is+a+positive+factor+for+the+VLCC+market%2C+but+its+impact+is+unclear+amid+sluggish+demand+for+crude+oil.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+fact%2C+a+similar+increase+in+production+has+already+been+implemented+in+May%2C+but+in+the+Middle+East%2C+where+cargoes+are+loaded%2C+there+are+a+large+number+of+ships+without+specific+contracts+unable+to+find+any+contracts.+As+of+the+end+of+April%2C+the+number+of+these+vessels+had+risen+to+about+70.+Taking+into+account+the+current+weakness+in+demand+for+crude+oil%2C+%E2%80%9Cships+without+specific+contracts+are+likely+to+continue+piling+up+in+the+future%2C%E2%80%9C+according+to+a+market+insider.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Charterer+advantage+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80If+the+surplus+of+ships+at+loading+ports+accelerates%2C+market+conditions+will+become+more+favorable+for+charterers.+This+is+because+charterers+can+consider+offers+from+multiple+shipowners.+In+that+case%2C+the+market+will+go+downhill.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+current+Middle+East-China+freight+index+Worldscale+%28WS%29+is+at+65.90%2C+down+0.10+points+from+the+previous+business+day.+In+late+April%2C+the+WS+reached+the+70+range%2C+but+has+since+been+weakening.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+pace+of+deals+also+slowed+as+May+loading+began.+According+to+a+market+source%2C+the+average+number+of+contracts+for+loading+in+the+Middle+East+in+January-April+was+136+per+month.+As+of+now%2C+there+are+approximately+90+contracts+for+loads+in+May.+The+source+said%2C+%E2%80%9CIn+the+spot+charter+market%2C+vessel+allowances+for+May+loading+will+probably+be+available+until+May+16.+After+that%2C+STEM+confirmations+%28shipping+information%29+for+June+loading+will+start+to+come+out%2C+and+negotiations+will+shift+to+June+loading.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+May+shipments%2C+the+source+said%2C+%E2%80%9CIt+is+difficult+to+imagine+that+40+deals+will+be+concluded+in+the+remaining+seven+business+days%2C+or+around+six+deals+per+business+day%2C%E2%80%9C+predicting+a+decline+in+the+number+of+deals.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+if+the+current+WS65.90+is+converted+into+charter+freight%2C+it+comes+to+over+%2440%2C000+per+day+even+when+using+more+expensive+VLSFO+%28very+low+sulfur+fuel+oil%29%2C+which+appears+to+cover+the+general+break-even+point+of+%2430%2C000.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80For+ships+using+high-sulfur+fuel+oil+and+equipped+with+scrubbers+%28exhaust+gas+cleaning+system%29%2C+the+rate+is+set+at+%2456%2C000.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Softening+again+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Even+after+the+May+production+increase+was+announced+in+early+April%2C+the+VLCC+market+has+not+seen+a+significant+increase+on+the+Middle+East-China+route%2C+and+has+even+fallen+below+the+break-even+point+at+times%2C+due+to+a+combination+of+factors+including+sluggish+crude+oil+demand%2C+the+announcement+of+U.S.+tariff+policies%2C+and+regular+maintenance+at+refineries+at+the+unloading+points.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+it+started+to+rise+after+a+rush+to+secure+ship+chartering+before+the+Easter+holidays+on+April+20%2C+and+the+WS+temporarily+reached+the+70s.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+at+present%2C+the+market+is+weakening+again%2C+with+the+pace+of+deals+slowing+in+the+Middle+East%2C+where+cargoes+are+loaded%2C+and+there+are+about+70+ships+in+stock.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80OPEC+Plus+is+currently+implementing+a+plan+to+increase+production%2C+with+eight+willing+countries+-+Saudi+Arabia%2C+Russia%2C+Iraq%2C+the+UAE+%28United+Arab+Emirates%29%2C+Kuwait%2C+Kazakhstan%2C+Algeria+and+Oman+-+gradually+reducing+the+voluntary+additional+production+cuts+they+imposed+from+November+2023+over+a+period+of+18+months%2C+starting+in+April+this+year.+The+planned+production+increase+of+411%2C000+barrels+per+day+in+May+and+June+represents+about+three+times+the+amount+originally+planned+in+the+plan.+%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%82%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%99%E3%80%82%3Cbr%3E