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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily May 23, 2025 (Fri)

‌【Market2025】VLCCs soften again

The break-even point is covered

　The spot charter market for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) continues to fluctuate. Although it reb ・・・続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80The+spot+charter+market+for+VLCC+%28Very+Large+Crude+Carrier%29+continues+to+fluctuate.+Although+it+rebounded+in+the+latter+half+of+last+week%2C+it+has+recently+weakened+again.+Charter+rates+for+the+Middle+East-China+route%2C+the+trunk+line%2C+have+fallen+below+%2440%2C000+per+day+if+expensive+VLSFO+%28very+low+sulfur+fuel+oil%29+is+used.+It+is+possible+that+some+of+the+ships+without+specific+contracts+that+had+been+adjusting+their+positions+around+Singapore+with+a+view+to+identifying+market+destinations+have+headed+for+the+Middle+East.+Even+though+contracts+are+being+concluded+in+the+Middle+East%2C+the+surplus+of+ships+remains+unresolved.+The+number+of+surplus+ships+is+estimated+to+be+around+30.+If+this+situation+continues%2C+the+market+will+clearly+favor+charterers%2C+and+it+will+decline+at+an+accelerated+pace.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+the+Middle+East%2C+where+the+cargo+is+loaded%2C+demand+for+cargo+%28crude+oil%29+is+sluggish%2C+even+as+oil-producing+countries+step+up+production%2C+and+this+is+not+translating+into+increased+transportation+demand.+Symbolizing+this%2C+from+the+end+of+last+month%2C+there+were+ships+without+specific+contracts+that+had+not+been+contracted.+The+number+of+ships+without+specific+contracts+temporarily+reached+70.+However%2C+by+the+third+week+of+May+%2812-16%29%2C+when+loading+for+early+June+began%2C+deals+were+concluded+at+a+faster+pace+than+before%2C+and+the+surplus+ships+fell+to+around+30+ships.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80This+week+%28the+fourth+week+of+May%29%2C+the+pace+of+eliminating+the+surplus+ships+seemed+to+be+accelerating.+However%2C+according+to+market+participants%2C+some+of+the+ships+without+specific+contracts+that+had+been+adjusting+their+positions+in+Singapore+are+believed+to+have+headed+for+the+Middle+East%2C+and+the+number+of+ships+appears+to+be+remaining+at+around+30+even+as+deals+are+being+concluded.+Combined+with+macroeconomic+factors+such+as+sluggish+demand+for+crude+oil%2C+it+is+becoming+increasingly+difficult+to+predict+when+the+oversupply+of+tonnage+and+ships+will+be+resolved.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+market+source+said%2C+%E2%80%9CThere+are+already+39+deals+in+the+Middle+East+for+June+loading+up+to+June+10+that+have+surfaced.+This+is+a+faster+pace+than+January+to+May+loading.+But+it%E2%80%99s+unclear+whether+this+pace+can+be+sustained.+At+present%2C+there+seems+to+be+a+lull+in+deals+with+the+so-called+Far+East+unloading%2C+including+China%2C+Japan+and+South+Korea.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+fact%2C+according+to+a+market+report+dated+May+22%2C+the+most+recent+deals+were+focused+on+shipments+unloading+in+India.+In+particular%2C+Indian+Oil+Corporation+BPCL+chartered+vessels+at+a+freight+index+WS+%28Worldscale%29+of+74+for+June+8-9+loading+in+Jubail+and+Dammam+%28Saudi+Arabia%29+and+Basrah+Oil+Terminal+%28Iraq%29+and+unloading+in+Cochin+%28India%29%2C+at+seemingly+high+prices+in+recent+times.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+compared+to+cargoes+unloading+in+China%2C+unloading+in+India+tend+to+have+shorter+distances+and+higher+WS.+The+impact+on+the+Middle+East-China+route%2C+the+trunk+line%2C+will+be+minor.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+the+report%2C+the+WS+for+the+Middle+East-China+route+on+May+21+was+61.50%2C+down+0.75+points+from+the+previous+trading+day%2C+marking+the+third+consecutive+trading+day+of+decline.+In+terms+of+charter+equivalent%2C+this+comes+to+%2438%2C000+per+day+if+VLSFO+is+used%2C+and+%2446%2C500+per+day+if+high-sulfur+heavy+oil+is+used+%28ships+equipped+with+scrubbers%2C+or+exhaust+gas+cleaning+systems%29.+Both+prices+cover+the+general+break-even+point+of+%2430%2C000.+However%2C+unless+the+excess+vessel+situation+is+resolved%2C+the+market+will+continue+to+favor+charterers%2C+and+it+will+continue+to+decline.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Meanwhile%2C+regarding+the+Atlantic+market%2C+which+has+loading+ports+such+as+the+Gulf+of+Mexico%2C+Brazil%2C+and+West+Africa%2C+the+source+said%2C+%E2%80%9CThe+market+is+dealing+with+mid-June+loading%2C+and+contracts+are+starting+to+increase%2C%E2%80%9C+expressing+hope+for+the+market+to+become+more+active+in+the+future.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80He+added%2C+%E2%80%9CIf+the+WTI+%28West+Texas+Intermediate%29+price+falls+significantly+below+the+Dubai+crude+price%2C+ship+chartering+on+the+Atlantic+side+will+also+pick+up.+Currently%2C+the+price+difference+is+very+small%2C+at+around+%242+a+barrel%2C+but+we%E2%80%99d+like+to+keep+an+eye+on+whether+it+will+widen.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Sanctions+may+affect+Aframax%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+the+other+hand%2C+the+market+source+also+mentioned+the+impact+of+additional+sanctions+announced+by+the+European+Union+%28EU%29+on+May+20+against+the+so-called+%E2%80%9CShadow+Fleet%2C%E2%80%9C+a+fleet+of+approximately+200+vessels+engaged+in+transporting+Russian+crude+oil+and+other+products.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CThe+main+type+of+crude+oil+tanker+used+to+transport+Russian+crude+oil+is+100%2C000-dwt+Aframax%2C%E2%80%9C+he+said%2C+indicating+that+even+if+sanctions+are+imposed%2C+the+impact+on+the+VLCC+market+will+be+limited.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%82%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%99%E3%80%82%3Cbr%3E