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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Jun 24, 2025 (Tue)

‌【Market2025】VLCC Market to EXPLODE if Strait of Hormuz Blocked

Trends in marine war risk insurance also attract attention
　Following the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, momentum for the blockade of the ・・・ %E3%80%80Following+the+US+attack+on+Iranian+nuclear+facilities+on+June+21%2C+momentum+for+the+blockade+of+the+Strait+of+Hormuz+in+the+Middle+East+is+growing%2C+and+the+VLCC+%28Very+Large+Crude+Carrier%29+market+may+see+an+upward+trend.+Against+the+backdrop+of+rising+geopolitical+risks%2C+even+as+of+June+20%2C+before+the+US+attacks%2C+the+freight+rate+index+WS+%28Worldscale%29+for+the+Middle+East-China+route+exceeded+80+range.+In+terms+of+charter+equivalent%2C+it+was+in+the+range+of+%2450%2C000-60%2C000+per+day.+A+market+participant+said%2C+%E2%80%9CWe+are+currently+in+a+state+of+emergency%2C+and+from+now+on%2C+there+will+probably+be+a+division+between+ships+that+can+go+to+the+Middle+East+and+those+that+cannot%2C%E2%80%9C+indicating+that+the+supply+of+ships+could+be+limited.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+foreign+reports%2C+the+Iranian+parliament+has+approved+closing+the+Strait+of+Hormuz.+However%2C+as+of+June+23%2C+it+is+unclear+whether+a+blockade+will+be+implemented.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+Strait+of+Hormuz+is+a+key+point+for+transporting+crude+oil+in+the+Middle+East.+More+than+90%25+of+Japan%E2%80%99s+crude+oil+supplies+come+from+the+Middle+East%2C+so+the+impact+of+the+blockade+would+be+immeasurable.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+a+market+source%2C+as+of+June+20%2C+before+the+attack%2C+some+shipping+companies+had+instructed+their+VLCCs+in+the+Persian+Gulf+to+pass+through+the+Strait+of+Hormuz+at+full+speed+after+loading+their+vessels.+The+market+source+predicted%2C+%E2%80%9CAfter+the+attack+on+June+21%2C+it+is+inevitable+that+we+will+need+to+take+measures+with+greater+attention+to+safety+in+the+future.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+fact%2C+according+to+ship+tracking+information+from+the+UK%E2%80%99s+VesselsValue%2C+a+product+carrier+operated+by+a+Japanese+carrier+was+seen+making+a+180-degree+turn+on+June+22+just+before+approaching+the+Strait+of+Hormuz+from+the+Gulf+of+Oman%2C+and+returning+to+the+Gulf+of+Oman.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Rising+tensions+between+the+United+States+and+Iran+raise+concerns+that+the+situation+could+worsen%2C+including+an+exchange+of+attacks+in+waters+around+the+Middle+East.+The+source+said%2C+%E2%80%9CFrom+now+on%2C+depending+on+company+policy+or+the+efforts+of+unions%2C+there+may+be+moves+to+cancel+shipments+to+the+Middle+East.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Even+so%2C+he+also+expressed+the+view+that%2C+due+to+their+political+ties+with+Iran%2C+%E2%80%9CChinese+and+Greek+flagged+ships+are+probably+less+likely+to+be+targets+of+attack.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+War+Insurance+Increase%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+a+market+report%2C+the+WS+for+the+Middle+East-China+route+on+June+20+was+81.75%2C+5.95+points+higher+than+the+previous+trading+day.+In+terms+of+charter+equivalent%2C+this+comes+to+%2455%2C000+per+day+if+the+ship+uses+more+expensive+VLSFO+%28Very+Low+Sulphur+Fuel+Oil%29%2C+and+%2463%2C000+per+day+if+it+uses+high-sulfur+fuel+oil+%28equipped+with+a+scrubber%2C+an+exhaust+gas+cleaning+system%29.+This+exceeds+the+typical+breakeven+point+of+%2430%2C000.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+the+VLCC+market%2C+since+the+Iranian-Israeli+attack+began+on+June+13%2C+shipowners+have+begun+to+demand+premium+freight+rates+from+charterers%2C+taking+advantage+of+the+rising+momentum+in+marine+war+risk+insurance+premiums.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+an+insurance+industry+insider%2C+as+of+June+20%2C+war+insurance+rates+for+ships+assigned+to+the+Middle+East+have+risen+from+approximately+0.1%25+to+approximately+0.2%25.+The+insurance+industry+insider+predicted%2C+%E2%80%9CThis+figure+is+from+before+the+U.S.+attack%2C+and+it+will+likely+fluctuate+further+depending+on+future+developments.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+more+expensive+a+ship%E2%80%99s+hull+is%2C+the+higher+the+premiums+for+war+insurance+are.+Therefore%2C+it+is+possible+that+in+the+future%2C+relatively+older+ships+will+be+assigned+to+the+Middle+East.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+shipping+supply+and+demand+remains+loose.+Although+oil-producing+countries+in+the+Middle+East+are+gradually+increasing+production%2C+this+is+not+translating+into+increased+transportation+demand+due+to+sluggish+demand+for+crude+oil+cargoes.+A+certain+number+of+surplus+ships+has+continued+since+late+April.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Shipping+stocks+rise%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+June+23%2C+the+stock+market+saw+shipping+stocks+rise+across+the+board%2C+in+anticipation+of+rising+freight+rates+for+crude+oil+tankers.+Kyoei+Tanker+briefly+reached+1%2C307+yen%2C+30%25+higher+than+the+previous+day%E2%80%99s+closing+price%2C+hitting+the+price+limit.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+its+response+policy+as+of+June+23%2C+NYK+stated%2C+%E2%80%9CWe+are+issuing+a+warning+to+vessels+sailing+in+the+surrounding+waters+and+are+continuing+to+gather+information+in+cooperation+with+relevant+parties.+We+are+in+discussions+regarding+specific+measures+at+this+time.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80MOL+said%2C+%E2%80%9CWe+are+strengthening+monitoring+at+our+Safety+Operation+Support+Center+around+the+clock.%E2%80%9C+The+captain+on+duty+ashore+contacts+the+vessel+directly+to+ensure+safety+and+support+the+captain%E2%80%99s+decision-making+for+each+individual+vessel.+We+will+continue+to+give+top+priority+to+the+safety+of+crew%2C+cargo+and+ships.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%82%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%99%E3%80%82%3Cbr%3E

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【市況2025】中東緊迫 VL市況高騰か。WS80超。ホルムズ封鎖なら一層
2025/06/24(火)
日本海事新聞 JMD


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