日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Jul 08, 2025 (Tue)

‌【Market2025】OPEC Production Expansion Unlikely to Bolster VLCC Market Significantly

　The decision by eight member countries of OPEC Plus, which consists of OPEC (Organization of the Pe ・・・ 続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80The+decision+by+eight+member+countries+of+OPEC+Plus%2C+which+consists+of+OPEC+%28Organization+of+the+Petroleum+Exporting+Countries%29+and+major+non-member+countries%2C+to+increase+production+in+August+has+drawn+attention+as+to+its+impact+on+the+VLCC+%28Very+Large+Crude+Carrier%29+market.+Generally%2C+increased+production+means+more+cargo+volume+and+is+seen+as+a+positive+for+the+market.+However%2C+with+crude+oil+demand+remaining+sluggish%2C+it+is+unclear+to+what+extent+this+will+contribute+to+an+increase.+As+of+July+7%2C+it+was+not+clear+what+the+market+level+would+be+after+the+decision+to+increase+production%2C+but+market+participants+were+cautious%2C+saying%2C+%E2%80%9CThis+production+increase+of+around+548%2C000+barrels+per+day+may+not+have+much+of+a+positive+effect.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+eight+OPEC+Plus+member+countries+have+announced+production+increases+for+every+month+since+May%2C+and+the+latest+announcement+marks+the+fourth+consecutive+month+of+increases.+Production+will+increase+by+548%2C000+barrels+per+day+in+August.+The+transport+capacity+of+one+VLCC+is+generally+said+to+be+approximately+2+million+barrels.+Therefore%2C+this+increase+in+production+will+create+transport+demand+for+more+than+eight+ships+per+month.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+there+is+a+strong+view+that+even+after+increased+production+since+May%2C+%E2%80%9Cit+is+not+directly+linked+to+transportation+demand.%E2%80%9C+Demand+for+crude+oil+is+weak%2C+and+a+certain+amount+of+surplus+ships+has+been+occurring+in+the+Middle+East+since+around+late+April.+Scrapping+is+not+progressing%2C+and+there+are+many+old+ships.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+market+temporarily+soared+after+mid-June%2C+but+it+was+not+due+to+changes+in+shipping+supply+and+demand%2C+but+rather+due+primarily+to+increased+shipping+risks+caused+by+rising+tensions+in+the+Middle+East.+In+fact%2C+the+market+has+softened+again+since+the+Israeli-Iranian+ceasefire+agreement+on+June+24.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+market+participant+pointed+out%2C+%E2%80%9CIf+it+were+a+large-scale+production+increase%2C+for+example%2C+3+million+barrels+per+day%2C+it+would+have+a+large+impact+on+the+market%2C+and+we+could+expect+a+positive+effect.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80When+asked+why+the+market+has+not+improved+despite+the+gradual+increase+in+production+since+May%2C+he+said%2C+%E2%80%9CIt+is+not+clear%2C%E2%80%9C+but+added%2C+%E2%80%9CPerhaps+some+of+the+increased+production+is+being+absorbed+through+medium-+to+long-term+transportation+contracts+that+do+not+appear+in+the+spot+market.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+a+market+report%2C+the+average+Middle+East-Japan+freight+rate+on+July+4+was+Worldscale+%28WS%29+46.+The+charter+equivalent+was+%2426%2C000+per+day+for+a+ship+using+VLSFO+%28low-sulfur+fuel+oil%29+and+%2433%2C000+per+day+for+a+ship+using+high-sulfur+heavy+oil+%28equipped+with+a+scrubber%2C+an+exhaust+gas+cleaning+system%29.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80OPEC+Plus+is+currently+implementing+a+production+increase+plan+to+gradually+reduce+voluntary+additional+production+cuts+by+eight+member+countries%E2%80%94Saudi+Arabia%2C+Russia%2C+Iraq%2C+the+UAE%2C+Kuwait%2C+Kazakhstan%2C+Algeria+and+Oman%E2%80%94from+November+2023+over+a+period+of+18+months%2C+starting+in+April+this+year.+They+increased+production+by+411%2C000+barrels+per+day+in+May%2C+June+and+July.+This+represents+an+approximately+three-fold+increase+in+production+compared+to+the+initial+plan.+Immediately+after+the+announcement+of+the+production+increase+in+May%2C+there+were+voices+from+the+shipping+industry+expecting+the+VLCC+market+to+rise%2C+with+%E2%80%9Ccargo+volumes+increasing.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%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【市況2025】VLCC効果限定的か。OPEC増産、日量54万バレル超

2025/07/08(火)

日本海事新聞 JMD

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