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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Sep 08, 2025 (Mon)

Drewry Analysis: VLGC Market to “Remain Strong“ in 2H 2025

　In a webinar on LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) carriers held in the last week of August, British res ・・・続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80In+a+webinar+on+LPG+%28liquefied+petroleum+gas%29+carriers+held+in+the+last+week+of+August%2C+British+research+firm+Drewry+expressed+the+view+that+the+market+for+%3Cb%3EVLGC%3C%2Fb%3Es+%28Very+Large+LPG+Carriers%29+will+%E2%80%9Cremain+strong%E2%80%9C+in+the+second+half+of+2025.+Factors+supporting+the+market+include+the+opening+of+new+export+terminals+in+the+United+States%2C+increased+production+of+NGLs+%28natural+gas+liquids%29%2C+the+raw+material+for+LPG%2C+reduced+efficiency+due+to+congestion+at+the+Panama+Canal%2C+and+increased+long-distance+trade+around+the+Cape+of+Good+Hope.+On+the+other+hand%2C+there+are+concerns+that+the+sense+of+excess+shipping+capacity+will+increase+as+2026+and+2027+will+see+an+increase+in+new+ship+completions.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80While+LPG+cargo+movements+this+year+were+negatively+impacted+by+tariffs+on+trade+between+the+US+and+China%2C+global+trade+volumes+remained+strong+as+India%2C+Japan+and+Indonesia+switched+from+Middle+Eastern+LPG+procurement+to+US+LPG+through+swap+deals+with+China.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Due+to+congestion+at+the+Panama+Canal%2C+restrictions+on+passage+slots+and+high+transit+fees+mean+that+many+%3Cb%3EVLGC%3C%2Fb%3Es+are+choosing+to+use+the+Panama+Canal+on+their+outbound+voyages+and+go+around+the+Cape+of+Good+Hope+on+their+return+voyages.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Full-year+%3Cb%3EVLGC%3C%2Fb%3E+charter+rates+for+2025+are+expected+to+fall+19%25+year-on-year+due+to+weak+markets+in+the+first+half+of+the+year.+Negative+factors+include+the+tariff+friction+between+the+US+and+China%2C+sluggish+petrochemical+demand+in+China%2C+and+a+decline+in+household+demand+in+India.+Cargo+movements+to+Japan+are+expected+to+increase+6%25+year-on-year+due+to+petrochemical+demand+and+inventory+buildup.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+the+supply+side%2C+the+Middle+East+is+expected+to+see+an+11%25+increase+as+crude+oil+production+cuts+are+lifted%2C+and+the+United+States+is+expected+to+see+a+6%25+increase+as+shale-derived+LPG+production+increases%2C+while+Australia+is+likely+to+see+a+3%25+decrease+due+to+cuts+in+gas+field+production.+Exports+from+Canada+and+Russia+are+expected+to+remain+stable.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80For+Middle+Eastern+cargoes%2C+%3Cb%3EVLGC%3C%2Fb%3E+spot+freight+rates+soared+by+15+to+20%25+in+June+due+to+tensions+between+Iran+and+Israel.+%E2%80%9CThe+Middle+East+represents+34%25+of+global+LPG+exports+and+could+therefore+be+a+significant+risk+factor%2C%E2%80%9C+Drewry+said.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Concentration+of+completion+in+2026-2027+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+world%E2%80%99s+total+LPG+carrier+shipping+capacity+is+expected+to+grow+at+an+average+annual+rate+of+8.4%25+between+2025+and+2030.+In+particular%2C+new+construction+of+%3Cb%3EVLGC%3C%2Fb%3Es+and+VLACs+%28Very+Large+Ammonia+Carriers%29+is+expected+to+be+concentrated+in+2026+and+2027.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+market+for+midsize+LPG+carriers+%28MGCs%29+is+also+coming+under+downward+pressure+due+to+the+negative+impact+of+%3Cb%3EVLGC%3C%2Fb%3Es.+However%2C+the+long-term+MGC+market+is+expected+to+stabilize+due+to+increased+demand+in+Southeast+Asia+and+increased+shipments+of+green+ammonia.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Petrochemical+trade+is+slowing+globally%2C+with+ethylene+production+facilities+being+shut+down+one+after+another+in+Europe+due+to+high+costs+and+stricter+regulations%2C+and+petrochemical+demand+in+China+also+weakening+due+to+an+economic+slowdown.+The+introduction+of+a+licensing+system+for+US+ethane+exports+to+China+due+to+US-China+friction+has+also+contributed+to+uncertainty.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+New+shipbuilding+prices+have+fallen+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+new+shipbuilding+price+of+%3Cb%3EVLGC%3C%2Fb%3Es+has+risen+steadily+from+%2464.2+million+in+2017+to+%24122.5+million+in+the+January-March+period+of+this+year.+However%2C+in+April+to+June%2C+prices+fell+by+%24500%2C000+to+%24122+million%2C+the+first+drop+in+several+years%2C+and+%E2%80%9Cwhile+the+numbers+are+not+a+big+drop%2C+it+is+notable+that+the+long-term+upward+trend+has+come+to+a+halt%2C%E2%80%9C+said+Drewry.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80One+factor+behind+the+decline+in+ship+prices+is+a+slowdown+in+orders+in+2025%2C+a+reaction+to+the+concentration+of+newbuilding+orders+in+2023+and+2024.+In+addition%2C+orders+for+other+ship+types%2C+such+as+LNG+%28liquefied+natural+gas%29+carriers+and+container+ships%2C+have+also+slowed%2C+leaving+shipbuilders+with+excess+slipway+capacity+beyond+2028.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+addition%2C+Drewry+points+out+that+%E2%80%9CJapanese+shipyards+resuming+accepting+%3Cb%3EVLGC%3C%2Fb%3E+orders+could+intensify+competition+with+Chinese+and+Korean+shipyards%2C+leading+to+lower+prices.%E2%80%9C+In+addition%2C+VLAC+has+also+seen+a+slowdown+in+newbuilding+orders+due+to+uncertainty+over+ammonia+production+projects.+%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%82%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%99%E3%80%82%3Cbr%3E