日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Oct 18, 2021 (Mon)

‌【Current of Japanese shipowners】Overseas operators benefiting from booming market in contrast to Japanese shipowners

　“The turning point in new shipbuilding markets is changing again.“ 　At a coffee shop in Otemachi, ・・・ 続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80%E2%80%9CThe+turning+point+in+new+shipbuilding+markets+is+changing+again.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80At+a+coffee+shop+in+Otemachi%2C+Tokyo%2C+on+the+afternoon+of+October+14th%2C+a+shipping+broker+pointed+out%2C+sinking+into+the+backrest.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Continuing+mismatch+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80At+domestic+shipyards%2C+in+February-March%2C+when+the+sudden+rebound+in+new+shipbuilding+prices+temporarily+matched+charter+fees%2C+many+major+companies+secured+a+certain+amount+of+orderbook.+Since+then%2C+the+movement+has+been+divided+into+two+due+to+differences+in+ordering+strategies.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80One+is+the+leading+group%2C+which+continued+to+accumulate+orders+and+proceeded+to+the+gantt+chart+%28order+list%29+until+2025%2C+based+on+the+judgment+that+ship+prices+seemed+to+start+reaching+the+highest+price.+The+other+is+the+follow-up+group%2C+which+curtailed+sales+activities+in+response+to+the+sharp+rise+in+steel+prices+and+preserved+docks+due+in+2023.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80It+is+said+that%2C+since+September%2C+the+latter+has+begun+to+accumulate+orders+for+Handy+Bulker+at+higher+ship+prices+than+in+early+spring.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+the+majority+of+orders+are+from+overseas+owners+and+operators+%28shipowners+and+operating+companies%29.+The+mismatch+between+ship+prices+and+charter+fees+has+not+been+resolved+yet%2C+and+the+environment+is+not+such+that+Japanese+ship+owners+can+move+to+newbuilding+programs.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+broker+official+continues.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CSome+of+the+high-priced+ships+have+been+contracted+for+more+than+%24+30+million+in+Handysize+that+comply+with+the+latest+regulations.+Even+for+Handymax%2C+there+are+fast-delivery+ships+contracted+for+nearly+%24+35+million.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Both+have+increased+by+20+to+30%25+from+early+spring+on+a+contract+basis%2C+which+is+about+40%25+higher+than+last+year%E2%80%99s+bottom+prices.+Small+bulkers%E2%80%99+new+shipbuilding+prices+are+currently+at+the+highest+level+in+the+last+10+years+on+an+indicative+price+basis.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+veteran+Imabari+shipowner+sighs+over+the+phone.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CIf+we+were+to+build+a+new+Handy+Bulker+at+a+price+of+%24+30+million%2C+we+would+need+a+time+charter+%28TC%29+with+a+term+of+5+years+and+a+charter+fee+of+at+least+%24+13%2C000.+This+is+a+rule+of+thumb+for+many+years.+No+matter+how+strong+the+current+dry+bulk+market+is%2C+there+is+no+such+TC+project.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+order+for+Japanese+ship+owners+to+obtain+a+loan+from+Japanese+financial+institutions+such+as+Japanese+regional+banks+and+place+an+order+for+a+Handy+Bulker%2C+in+principle%2C+a+TC+backing+with+a+period+of+5+years+or+more+is+required+in+the+general+case+of+putting+in+10+to+20%25+of+own+funds.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+the+5-year+TC+rate+of+the+same+ship+type+is+currently+over+%24+11%2C000+to+%24+12%2C000%2C+which+is+not+at+a+level+commensurate+with+further+increased+new+shipbuilding+prices%2C+and+Japanese+ship+owners+are+unable+to+undertake+newbuilding+programs.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Influencing+friendly+shipowners+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Under+these+circumstances%2C+why+can+overseas+owners+and+operators+place+orders%3F+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+veteran+trading+company+official+takes+over.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CThey+operate+their+own+bulkers+in+spot+markets+with+unusually+high+prices%2C+so+they+have+plenty+of+cash+on+hand.+On+top+of+that%2C+they+believe+if+new+ships+can+be+delivered+in+the+near+future%2C+even+if+orders+are+placed+at+current+high+ship+prices%2C+they+would+win.+If+they+enjoy+the+good+markets+for+several+years+after+the+completion+of+construction+and+earn+money%2C+it+will+be+virtually+the+same+as+ordering+at+a+low+ship+price.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80What+does+it+mean.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80First%2C+the+financing+aspect.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Overseas+owners+and+operators+have+abundant+cash+that+can+be+invested%2C+in+the+tailwind+of+soaring+dry+bulk+markets%2C+and+can+invest+more+of+their+own+funds+when+placing+new+orders.+As+for+the+remaining+loan+portion%2C+European+financial+institutions+have+turned+to+expanding+shipping+finance+due+to+the+improvement+in+shipping+markets.+In+other+words%2C+%E2%80%9CCurrently%2C+there+are+no+uncertainties+in+terms+of+funding%E2%80%9C+%28the+trading+company+official+mentioned+above%29.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Next+is+how+to+draw+the+odds+of+winning.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Of+course%2C+they+are+not+tied+to+medium-term+TC+like+Japanese+ship+owners+because+they+can+operate+on+their+own.+It+is+not+necessary+for+the+5-year+TC+rate+to+match+the+current+new+shipbuilding+prices.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+the+other+hand%2C+the+TC+rate+of+Handy+Bulker+is+currently+%24+18%2C000-+%24+19%2C000+for+3+years%2C+which+is+significantly+higher+than+the+average+break-even+point+of+the+same+ship+type.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Under+these+circumstances%2C+it+is+assumed+that+a+new+ship+with+a+ship+price+of+%24+30+million+will+be+ordered+with+a+delivery+date+of+2023.+In+that+case%2C+from+now+until+the+fall+of+2024%2C+three+years+later%2C+if+the+TC+rate+is+same+as+indicative+prices%2C+the+charter+fee+of+%24+19%2C000+per+day+can+be+expected.+Assuming+that+the+break-even+point+is+%24+9%2C000%2C+it+is+calculated+that+profits+of+%24+10%2C000+per+day+will+continue+to+be+generated+for+at+least+two+years+after+completion.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80If+one+year+is+350+days%2C+the+annual+profit+is+%24+3.5+million%2C+and+%24+7+million+in+two+years.+If+the+loan+for+construction+costs+is+prepaid+with+this+earned+cash%2C+the+new+ship+ordered+for+%24+30+million+will+become+a+competitive+ship+in+two+years+with+a+ship+price+of+%24+23+million%2C+which+is+practically+close+to+last+year%E2%80%99s+bottom+prices.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+trading+company+official+concludes+the+commentary.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CSome+domestic+shipyards+have+succeeded+in+influencing+overseas+friendly+shipowners+with+this+idea+by+presenting+limited+docks+for+2023.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80While+looking+at+orders+of+overseas+shipowners%2C+most+Japanese+ship+owners%2C+except+for+super-majors%2C+remain+stuck.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Shipowners%2C+who+sell+old+ships+in+strong+secondhand+vessel+markets+and+gain+profits+from+the+sale%2C+want+to+secure+depreciable+financial+resources+as+tax+measures.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80While+it+is+difficult+to+place+new+orders%2C+is+there+a+possibility+that+some+of+the+new+ships+ordered+by+overseas+owners+and+operators+will+be+brought+in+as+%E2%80%9CSale+and+Leaseback%E2%80%9C+%28S%26LB%29+deals+in+which+ships+are+sold+or+arranged+as+leaseback+to+Japanese+ship+owners+in+the+future%3F+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Another+trading+company+official+talks+about+the+outlook.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CIf+the+European+Banks%E2%80%99+shipping+finance+tightens+again%2C+such+deals+may+emerge.+However%2C+in+the+current+situation+where+overseas+operators+are+easy+to+obtain+loans+in+Europe%2C+Japanese+S%26LB+deals+are+not+necessary.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80While+the+dry+bulk+market+is+booming%2C+overseas+owners+and+operators+who+enjoy+benefits+and+are+activate+in+investment%2C+and+Japanese+ship+owners+who+are+still+limited+in+their+options%2C+the+contrast+between+wining+and+losing+is+outstanding+among+them.+%3Cbr%3E%28Japanese+ship+owners+coverage+group%29+%3Cbr%3E%3D+Posted+every+Monday%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC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【国内船主の今】(285)海外オペ 高値発注の勝算。市況高騰で際立つ明暗

2021/10/18(月)

日本海事新聞 JMD

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