日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Jul 04, 2022 (Mon)

‌‌【Current of Japanese shipowners】Any risk of the long-term TC for Japanese shipowners in the impending rising interest rates and inflation?

　“Is the Japanese long-term charter myth correct? Questions are being raised now. “ 　In the afternoo ・・・ 続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80%E2%80%9CIs+the+Japanese+long-term+charter+myth+correct%3F+Questions+are+being+raised+now.+%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+the+afternoon+of+the+late+June+in+Tokyo%2C+where+the+maximum+temperature+was+over+35+degrees+Celsius%2C+a+ship+finance+official+said+with+a+stern+look.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CThe+world+is+facing+inflation%2C+and+the+crisis+in+Ukraine+has+spurred+soaring+resources+and+energy.+In+addition%2C+the+United+States+and+other+countries+around+the+world+are+rapidly+raising+interest+rates.+Japanese+shipowners+can%E2%80%99t+be+irrelevant+either.+%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Stable+due+to+diversification+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Japanese+shipowners+have+basically+made+it+a+prerequisite+for+ordering+new+ships+to+secure+long-term+charter+contracts.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80One+background+is+that+instead+of+providing+high-leverage+%28high-level+borrowing+ratio+to+investment+amount%29+loans+with+own+funds+of+10+to+20%25+and+borrowing+of+80+to+90%25%2C+Japanese+regional+banks+ask+shipowners+to+secure+long-term+charter+vessels+as+an+income+guarantee.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+fixing+income+for+a+long+period+of+time+also+means+that+there+is+a+risk+of+inflation+and+rising+interest+rates.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Inflation+rates+in+the+United+States+and+Europe+have+now+reached+8-9%25%2C+and+Japan+has+entered+an+era+of+inflation+from+deflation+for+the+first+time+in+about+30+years.+Ship+costs+are+beginning+to+put+upward+pressure+on+seafarers+and+lubricant+prices.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+one+of+the+Japanese+ship+owners+said%2C+%E2%80%9CNow%2C+the+depreciation+of+the+yen+has+made+the+funds+moist%2C+and+I+am+not+very+aware+of+the+effects+of+inflation.+There+is+no+atmosphere+that+sees+long-term+charter+as+a+risk%2C%E2%80%9C+lacking+a+sense+of+crisis+at+the+moment.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+the+other+hand%2C+the+person+in+charge+of+ship+finance+at+the+beginning+said%2C+%E2%80%9CEven+if+the+impact+is+small+now%2C+rising+interest+rates+will+be+an+issue+in+the+future.+Yields+on+30-year+US+Treasuries+have+risen+from+1%25+to+3%25+over+the+past+year.+Japan+may+also+tighten+its+monetary+policy+when+the+term+of+office+of+the+BOJ%E2%80%99s+governor%2C+Haruhiko+Kuroda%2C+known+as+%E2%80%9CKuroda+Bazooka%2C%E2%80%9C+expires+next+spring.+%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+top+of+that%2C+%E2%80%9CIsn%E2%80%99t+it+important+to+reconsider+management+that+is+biased+toward+long-term+fixation%3F+Diversifying+charter+contracts+and+financing+methods+and+moving+toward+portfolio+management+will+lead+to+stability+in+the+long+run.+%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Greek+conservativeness+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9COur+management+is+conservative.+We+invest+40-50%25+of+our+own+funds+in+new+ships%2C+keep+borrowing+low%2C+and+lower+the+break-even+point.+%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+city+of+Athens%2C+Greece%2C+in+early+June%2C+with+a+refreshing+blue+sky+peculiar+to+the+Mediterranean+Sea.+The+top+Greek+dry+dedicated+shipowner%2C+who+was+interviewed%2C+said+so.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Greek+shipowners+put+most+of+their+bulkers+into+spot+operations+and+short-term+charter+with+a+term+of+less+than+one+year%2C+and+are+more+exposed+to+market+fluctuations+than+Japanese+shipowners.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Even+so%2C+when+I+asked+the+Greek+shipowner%2C+who+claims+to+be+conservative+in+his+management%2C+about+his+management+compared+with+the+management+of+the+Japanese+shipowner%2C+I+got+the+following+answer.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CJapanese+shipowners+who+carry+foreign+exchange+risk+seem+to+be+more+challenging.+The+shipping+market+can+be+analyzed+to+some+extent.+But+it%E2%80%99s+almost+impossible+to+read+the+exchange.+%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+fact%2C+the+recent+depreciation+of+the+yen+is+not+due+to+the+economic+situation+in+Japan+and+the+United+States%2C+but+to+Japan%E2%80%99s+own+monetary+policy.+While+countries+around+the+world+are+moving+to+raise+interest+rates+to+curb+inflation%2C+only+Japan+has+maintained+its+zero+interest+rate+policy%2C+and+the+yen%E2%80%99s+depreciation+is+accelerating+as+the+interest+rate+differential+between+Japan+and+the+United+States+widens.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80There+is+no+guarantee+that+the+current+exchange+rate%2C+which+is+also+called+the+%E2%80%9Cbad+yen+depreciation%E2%80%9C+that+causes+prices+to+rise%2C+will+continue+as+it+is.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+the+difference+between+Greek+and+Japanese+shipowner+management%2C+a+trading+company+official+pointed+out+that+%E2%80%9CJapanese+shipowners+are+often+tied+up+with+taxation+and+invest+in+depreciable+assets+from+the+negative+side.%E2%80%9C+On+the+other+hand%2C+%E2%80%9CGreece%2C+which+benefits+from+the+preferential+shipping+tax+system%2C+is+devoted+to+how+to+make+a+profit+on+the+ship.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Short-term+charter+and+spot+operations+are+almost+unknown+to+many+Japanese+shipowners+and+Japanese+regional+banks%2C+and+they+have+strong+psychological+allergies.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80However%2C+a+ship+finance+official+said%2C+%E2%80%9CIf+Japanese+regional+banks+think+that+short-term+charter+are+close+to+derivatives+of+interest+rate+%28financial+derivatives%29%2C+they+are+not+so+scary.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Financial+institutions%2C+including+Japanese+regional+banks%2C+utilize+derivatives+in+their+daily+operations+to+swap+fixed+and+variable+interest+rates.+There+is+also+a+hedging+method+called+FFA+%28Forward+Freight+Agreement%29+for+charter+fees%2C+which+is+not+vulnerable+to+fluctuation+risk.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Japan+has+been+accustomed+to+deflation+and+ultra-low+interest+rates+for+over+20+years%2C+and+it%E2%80%99s+not+easy+to+switch+between+minds.+However%2C+the+footsteps+of+inflation+and+rising+interest+rates+are+imminent%2C+and+shipowner+management+may+already+be+in+a+new+stage.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%28Japanese+ship+owners+coverage+group%29+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%3D+Posted+every+Monday+%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%82%82%E3%81%AE%E3%81%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%99%E3%80%82%3Cbr%3E

【国内船主の今】(320)長期用船神話は永遠か、金利の上昇とインフレの足音

2022/07/04(月)

日本海事新聞 JMD

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