日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Mar 17, 2025 (Mon)

‌【Current of Japanese shipowners】Stranded asset risks in shipping: When depreciation strategies backfire

　March 13, at Tokyo Kaikan, Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo. The annual results briefing for Danish shipping maj ・・・ 続きはログインして下さいnext %E3%80%80March+13%2C+at+Tokyo+Kaikan%2C+Chiyoda+Ward%2C+Tokyo.+The+annual+results+briefing+for+Danish+shipping+major+Ultrabulk+began+at+11%3A00+a.m.+The+company+operates+170-200+dry+cargo+ships+alone.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Speaking+on+stage%2C+CEO+%28Chief+Executive+Officer%29+Hans-Christian+Olesen+said+about+future+new+shipbuilding+plans%2C+%E2%80%9Cnew+shipbuilding+prices+remain+high.+It%E2%80%99s+a+wait-and-see+situation%2C%E2%80%9C+explaining+calmly.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Shipyards+anxiety%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CMore+than+shipping%2C+it%E2%80%99s+shipyards.+I+think+the+shipyards+are+feeling+more+uncertainty+about+the+future+of+the+dry+bulk+market.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+few+hours+after+Ultrabulk%E2%80%99s+briefing%2C+a+trading+company+representative+whispered+to+a+reporter+at+a+cafe+in+Tokyo.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CBetween+you+and+me%2C+the+shipyards+want+to+fill+their+slipways+beyond+2029.+In+fact%2C+new+shipbuilding+prices+are+being+offered+at+lower+prices+than+they+were+at+their+peak+in+the+latter+half+of+last+year.%E2%80%9C+%28Shipping+Department%29%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80What+does+that+mean%3F%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+dry+bulk+market+has+been+strong+for+the+past+two+years%2C+but+2025+has+been+turbulent+since+the+start+of+the+year.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Capesize+charter+rates+fell+to+%247%2C000+a+day+in+January+and+February%2C+less+than+half+the+break-even+point.+The+price+has+now+recovered+to+%2420%2C000%2C+but+%E2%80%9Cfor+a+Capesize+ship%2C+the+new+shipbuilding+price+of+which+was+%2476+million+as+of+November+last+year%2C+a+daily+wage+of+%2425%2C000+is+required%2C+including+inflation+in+crew+costs.+With+market+conditions+that+has+fluctuated+so+wildly%2C+this+is+no+longer+a+type+of+vessel+that+small+and+medium-sized+shipowners+can+afford+to+own.%E2%80%9C+%28Shipping+department+of+a+trading+company%29%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80It+is+not+just+the+volatility+of+the+market+that+has+shipyards+feeling+uneasy+about+the+future+of+the+dry+bulk+market.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Problems+specific+to+the+dry+bulk+market+include+the+continued+operation+of+older+ships+and+the+presence+of+China%2C+which+supports+its+shipyards+as+part+of+its+national+strategy%2C+due+to+the+large+number+of+players.+If+Chinese+shipbuilding+companies+continue+to+receive+orders+for+dry+cargo+ships+at+this+pace%2C+the+new+shipbuilding+prices+of+dry+cargo+carriers+will+also+become+a+competitive+market+between+Japan+and+China.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Japanese+shipyards+have+their+slipways+filled+until+2028%2C+but+they+are+naturally+concerned+about+what+to+do+with+their+slipways+after+2029.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80An+overseas+broker+explains.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CNaturally%2C+shipyards+expect+material+prices+and+labor+costs+to+continue+to+rise.+However%2C+new+shipbuilding+prices+are+ultimately+dependent+on+the+actual+market+conditions.+If+the+container+ship+market+collapses%2C+small+and+medium-sized+feeder+container+ships+will+compete+with+bulkers.+There+is+a+desire+to+hold+2029+slipways+at+relatively+high+prices+now%2C+before+the+dry+bulk+market+conditions+fall+and+downward+pressure+on+new+shipbuilding+prices+increases.+If+we+get+caught+up+in+price+competition+with+China%2C+it+will+be+a+disaster.%E2%80%9C+%28Dry+cargo+carrier+official%29%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Shipowners+with+ample+cash+on+hand%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+the+other+hand%2C+what+about+the+Japanese+shipowners+as+orderer%3F+Even+if+the+dry+bulk+market+were+to+fall+in+the+future%2C+there+will+be+one+crucial+difference+from+the+Global+Financial+Crisis+in+2008.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80This+is+because+the+high+market+conditions+and+weak+yen+over+the+past+two+years+have+left+Japanese+shipowners+cash-rich+%28with+plenty+of+funds+on+hand%29.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+Japanese+regional+bank+official+speaks.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CSince+2024%2C+with+the+resumption+of+shipping+financing+by+European+financial+institutions%2C+competition+for+financing+interest+rates+has+intensified+for+structured+projects+using+bare+boat+charter+contracts+between+overseas+shipowners+and+Japanese+shipowners.+Some+shipowners+are+turning+back+to+time+chartering+in+order+to+make+use+of+their+ship+management+personnel.+In+fact%2C+there+are+many+negotiations+for+time+charter+contracts+not+only+with+overseas+operators%2C+but+also+with+Japanese+operators+%28operating+shipping+companies%29.+However%2C+the+price+of+new+shipbuilding+prices+and+the+charter+rates+just+don%E2%80%99t+match+up%2C+so+the+cash+of+Japanese+shipowners+is+being+used+to+make+up+for+this+gap.%E2%80%9C+%28Ship+financing+officer%29%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Cash-rich+Japanese+ship+owners+would+like+to+have+depreciable+assets+for+tax+purposes+at+the+same+time.+However%2C+new+shipbuilding+prices+are+high%2C+and+Japanese+regional+banks+are+hesitant+to+provide+loans+based+on+the+basic+principle+that+%E2%80%9Chigh+charter+fees+combined+with+high+new+shipbuilding+prices+will+eventually+collapse.%E2%80%9C%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+the+first+place%2C+the+charter+rate+for+an+Ultramax+ship%2C+calculated+backwards+from+the+new+shipbuilding+price%2C+is+at+least+around+%2412%2C000+per+day+%28operating+costs+++capital+costs%29.+Despite+this%2C+the+operator%E2%80%99s+offer+did+not+reach+%2412%2C000.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80As+a+result%2C+wealthy+Japanese+ship+owners+will+be+contributing+their+own+cash+reserves+to+new+shipbuilding+projects.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Another+Japanese+regional+bank+official+explains.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CIf+there+is+a+mismatch+in+charter+rates+between+the+shipowner+and+the+operator+from+the+start%2C+we+cannot+envisage+financing.+As+a+result%2C+cash-rich+Japanese+shipowners+are+increasingly+contributing+their+own+funds%2C+up+from+the+previous+10%25%2C+to+20%25%2C+and+some+even+up+to+25%25.+This+will+reduce+the+capital+costs+of+the+vessels+and+make+it+possible+to+meet+the+charter+rates+offered+by+operators.+In+fact%2C+the+number+of+time+charter+cases+by+Japanese+shipowners+is+increasing.%E2%80%9C+%28Ship+financing+officer%29%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80While+it+may+seem+as+though+time+chartering+has+been+made+possible+through+the+unity+of+Japanese+regional+banks%2C+shipowners%2C+operators%2C+and+shipyards%2C+there+are+also+major+pitfalls.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+veteran+shipowner+makes+a+sharp+criticism.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CWhether+or+not+we+use+our+own+funds%2C+the+current+high+new+shipbuilding+prices+remain+unchanged.+Currently%2C+operators+typically+offer+time+charter+contracts+for+Ultramax+vessels+for+a+period+of+three+years%2C+with+an+option+to+buy+further+ships+thereafter.+If+the+charter+expires+in+three+years+and+the+PO+%28Purchase+Option%2C+the+operator%E2%80%99s+right+to+purchase+the+ship+at+the+end+of+the+contract%29+is+not+exercised%2C+the+shipowner+will+end+up+owning+an+%E2%80%98expensive+ship%E2%80%99.+The+reason+why+Japanese+regional+banks+have+recently+been+studying+leasing+companies+may+be+related+to+the+aspect+of+measures+to+deal+with+recessions.%E2%80%9C+%28Imabari+shipowner%29%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CHigh+ship+prices+and+high+charter+freight.%E2%80%9C+Although+this+is+an+ironclad+rule+that+should+be+avoided%2C+it+becomes+entangled+in+a+problem+unique+to+Japan%E2%80%99s+tax+system%2C+namely+depreciable+assets.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80When+one+Japanese+shipowner+says%2C+%E2%80%9CJapan%E2%80%99s+corporate+tax+is+as+hard+on+business+owners+as+inheritance+tax%2C%E2%80%9C+it+is+difficult+to+categorically+reject+investments+to+secure+depreciable+assets.%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80History+has+proven+that+investments+aimed+at+%E2%80%9Cdepreciating+assets%E2%80%9D+have+repeatedly+produced+stranded+assets.+What+attitude+should+shipowners%2C+Japanese+regional+banks%2C+and+trading+companies+take+toward+new+shipbuilding+in+the+future%3F%3Cbr%3E%28Japanese+ship+owners+coverage+team%29%3Cbr%3E%3D+Posted+every+other+Monday%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF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【国内船主の今】(389)座礁資産生む「償却投資」。ドライ主戦場、29年以降船台

2025/03/17(月)

日本海事新聞 JMD

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