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日本海事新聞ニュース Japan Maritime Daily Jan 30, 2026 (Fri)

Japanese Ship Finance Faces Murky Future for Residual Value as Asset Risks Rise

　“With ship prices remaining high, it is becoming increasingly important for financial institutions ・・・ %E3%80%80%E2%80%9CWith+ship+prices+remaining+high%2C+it+is+becoming+increasingly+important+for+financial+institutions+to+assess+ship+residual+value+risk.+However%2C+at+the+same+time%2C+it%E2%80%99s+becoming+more+difficult+to+determine+the+future+value+of+ships.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+veteran+financial+professional+pointed+this+out+in+mid-January.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+high+ship+prices+experienced+since+the+coronavirus+pandemic+mean+increased+lending+risks+for+financial+institutions.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80It+would+be+fine+if+this+ship+price+level+were+to+be+maintained+into+the+future%2C+but+if+the+value+of+the+ships+falls+due+to+a+recession+or+rapid+obsolescence%2C+the+LTV+%28loan-to-value+ratio%29+will+skyrocket%2C+threatening+the+recovery+of+loaned+funds.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CDuring+the+recession+before+the+coronavirus+pandemic%2C+we+saw+cases+where+LTV+was+120+to+130%25.+The+risk+of+high+ship+prices+should+not+be+underestimated.%E2%80%9C+%28the+financial+professional%29+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Even+if+a+ship+is+under+a+medium-+to+long-term+charter+contract%2C+it+is+hard+to+say+that+there+is+any+security.+If+high+ship+prices+are+covered+by+high-rate+charter+contracts%2C+the+risk+of+charter+fees+being+reduced+or+not+being+paid+during+a+recession+will+inevitably+increase.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CThat%E2%80%99s+why+it%E2%80%99s+important+to+be+able+to+dispose+of+the+target+ship+as+collateral+when+we+need+it.+As+the+business+models+of+Japanese+shipowners+diversify%2C+such+as+by+shortening+charter+periods+and+placing+advance+orders%2C+it+has+become+essential+to+consider+asset+finance%2C+which+relies+on+asset+value%2C+in+addition+to+corporate+and+project+evaluations.%E2%80%9C+%28the+financial+professional%29+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+Evaluation+update+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80As+market+ship+prices+have+risen+significantly+since+around+the+coronavirus+pandemic%2C+financial+institutions+are+being+forced+to+update+their+methods+of+assessing+residual+value+risk.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Koujitsu+Shintani%2C+head+of+Ship+Finance+Office+at+Yamaguchi+Financial+Group+%28FG%29%2C+explains+the+company%E2%80%99s+change+in+approach.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%80%9CPreviously%2C+we+assessed+residual+value+risk+based+on+historically+lowest+ship+prices+over+the+past+10+to+15+years.+However%2C+in+today%E2%80%99s+world+where+ships+are+becoming+more+fuel-efficient+and+functionally+sophisticated+every+year%2C+I+believe+this+method+is+no+longer+suitable.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+recent+years%2C+structural+factors+contributing+to+rising+costs+have+been+piling+up%2C+including+environmental+regulations%2C+inflation+of+shipbuilding+materials%2C+and+a+shortage+of+personnel+at+construction+sites.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80For+this+reason%2C+Yamaguchi+FG+has+asked+MarineNet%2C+a+ship+value+appraisal+service+provider%2C+to+calculate+%E2%80%9Cfuture+estimated+ship+values%2C%E2%80%9C+and+is+using+the+lowest+of+the+three+scenarios+%E2%80%94+%E2%80%9Coptimistic%2C%E2%80%9C+%E2%80%9Cintermediate%2C%E2%80%9C+and+%E2%80%9Clowest%E2%80%9C+%E2%80%94+to+evaluate+residual+value+risk.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+shipowner+said%2C+%E2%80%9CThere+are+still+financial+institutions+that+are+using+the+lowest+ship+prices+of+the+past+10+to+15+years.+However%2C+if+the+residual+value+risk+is+based+on+the+secondhand+vessel+prices+around+2016%2C+which+were+the+lowest+in+recent+years%2C+many+projects+will+not+be+approved.+We+need+an+evaluation+method+that+is+in+line+with+the+times.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80%E2%96%A0+The+direction+of+intraday+price+differences+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80How+to+determine+the+future+value+of+Chinese-built+ships+is+also+becoming+an+issue+in+ship+finance.+This+is+because+slipways+at+Japanese+shipyards+are+becoming+increasingly+tight%2C+and+in+recent+years+some+Japanese+shipowners+have+been+accelerating+their+orders+to+Chinese+yards.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Katsutoshi+Sugahara%2C+president+of+Sugahara+Kisen+%28Kure+City%2C+Hiroshima+Prefecture%29+that+stick+to+Japanese+construction%2C+assesses+the+situation+and+says%2C+%E2%80%9CNew+shipbuilding+prices+of+Chinese-built+ships+are+certainly+cheaper%2C+but+their+selling+prices+are+not+high+either.+Looking+at+the+overall+picture%2C+I+think+the+benefits+are+limited.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80According+to+a+shipbroker%2C+%E2%80%9CNew+Chinese-built+ships+are+about+15+to+20%25+cheaper+than+Japanese-built+ships%2C+and+I+imagine+the+price+difference+for+secondhand+vessels+is+about+the+same.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+fact%2C+according+to+MarineNet%E2%80%99s+ship+sales+database%2C+the+price+of+secondhand+Kamsarmax+vessels+completed+in+2019+that+were+sold+this+month+was+%2430.83+million+for+Japanese-built+vessels+and+%2426.7+million+for+Chinese-built+vessels%2C+with+the+Japanese-built+vessels+being+just+over+15%25+more+expensive.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80A+broker+said%2C+%E2%80%9CMany+assessments+point+out+that+long-term+structural+deterioration+is+a+known+weakness+of+Chinese-built+vessels.+Once+ships+are+over+10+years+old%2C+they+tend+to+experience+frequent+electrical+system+problems.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80On+the+other+hand%2C+a+person+involved+in+ship+finance+said%2C+%E2%80%9CThe+quality+of+Chinese+privately-run+yards+that+major+Japanese+shipowners+are+ordering+from+is+improving%2C+and+I+feel+the+gap+in+market+valuation+is+narrowing.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80The+price+of+secondhand+vessels+built+by+a+major+Chinese+private+yard+was+15%25+lower+than+Japanese-built+ships+in+2019%2C+before+the+coronavirus+pandemic%2C+but+the+price+gap+is+narrowing+to+10%25+by+2022+and+just+under+10%25+by+2025.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80In+addition+to+quality%2C+geopolitical+risks+such+as+the+US-China+conflict+cannot+be+ignored+when+evaluating+Chinese-built+ships.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Immediately+after+the+Trump+administration+announced+port+entry+fees+on+Chinese-built+ships+last+spring%2C+%E2%80%9CEven+ships+built+by+Japanese+yards+in+China+have+become+difficult+to+sell.+Grain+from+the+US+is+an+essential+cargo+for+medium-sized+bulkers%2C%E2%80%9C+said+the+broker.+%3Cbr%3E%E3%80%80Regarding+Chinese+shipyards%2C+a+Japanese+carrier+official+said%2C+%E2%80%9CThe+state-owned+large+yards+have+already+filled+their+slipways+with+the+massive+order+of+over+80+ships+from+the+COSCO+Group+in+December+last+year%2C+so+they+are+no+longer+hungry.+I+don%E2%80%99t+know+to+what+extent+the+US-China+conflict+has+influenced+this+order%2C+but+there+is+something+ominous+about+the+country%E2%80%99s+major+strategy+for+shipbuilding+and+shipping.%E2%80%9C+%3Cbr%3E%28Japanese+ship+owners+coverage+team%29+%3Cbr%3E%3D+Published+once+a+month+%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EDisclaimer%3A+The+English+translations+provided+through+this+service+are+the+result+of+translations+made+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+or+automatically+and+mechanically+translated+by+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+using+an+automated+translation+system+provided+by+a+third+party+after+certain+processing+of+the+Japanese+content+licensed+by+the+third+party.+In+terms+of+the+English+translation%2C+The+Japan+Maritime+Daily+and+MarineNet+Co.%2C+Ltd.+make+no+warranty+or+burden+of+any+kind%2C+express+or+implied%2C+including+its+accuracy%2C+reliability%2C+validity+or+fitness+for+a+particular+purpose.+MarineNet+Users+should+fully+understand+that+this+service+uses+an+automated+translation+system+that+automatically+and+mechanically+recognizes+and+analyzes+information+and+produces+results.+The+users+should+understand+the+above+conditions+before+using+this+service.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E5%85%8D%E8%B2%AC%E4%BA%8B%E9%A0%85%EF%BC%9A%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E4%BB%8B%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%BD%9C%E6%88%90%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E3%81%8B%E3%80%81%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8B%E3%82%89%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E8%A8%B1%E8%AB%BE%E3%82%92%E5%8F%97%E3%81%91%E3%81%9F%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E8%AA%9E%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B3%E3%83%B3%E3%83%86%E3%83%B3%E3%83%84%E3%82%92%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%81%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%AE%9A%E3%81%AE%E5%87%A6%E7%90%86%E3%82%92%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%A3%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%80%85%E3%81%8C%E6%8F%90%E4%BE%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%83%BB%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A%E3%80%81%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%8B%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E3%80%81%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E5%BD%93%E8%A9%B2%E8%8B%B1%E8%A8%B3%E3%81%AB%E9%96%A2%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E3%81%9D%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%A3%E7%A2%BA%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E4%BF%A1%E9%A0%BC%E6%80%A7%E3%80%81%E5%A6%A5%E5%BD%93%E6%80%A7%E5%8F%8A%E3%81%B3%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E7%9B%AE%E7%9A%84%E3%81%B8%E3%81%AE%E9%81%A9%E5%90%88%E6%80%A7%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%E3%82%81%E3%80%81%E6%98%8E%E7%A4%BA%E5%8F%88%E3%81%AF%E9%BB%99%E7%A4%BA%E3%81%AB%E3%82%82%E3%80%81%E3%81%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%BF%9D%E8%A8%BC%E3%82%82%E3%81%97%E3%81%BE%E3%81%9B%E3%82%93%E3%80%82%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%8D%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%A6%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B6%E3%83%BC%E3%81%AF%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%8C%E3%80%81%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%9A%84%E3%81%8B%E3%81%A4%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E7%9A%84%E3%81%AB%E6%83%85%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%92%E8%AA%8D%E8%AD%98%E3%83%BB%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E7%B5%90%E6%9E%9C%E3%82%92%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%9B%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E7%BF%BB%E8%A8%B3%E3%82%B7%E3%82%B9%E3%83%86%E3%83%A0%E3%82%92%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%81%A7%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E3%81%93%E3%81%A8%E3%82%92%E5%8D%81%E5%88%86%E3%81%AB%E7%90%86%E8%A7%A3%E3%81%97%E3%81%9F%E4%B8%8A%E3%81%A7%E3%80%81%E3%81%93%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B5%E3%83%BC%E3%83%93%E3%82%B9%E3%82%92%E5%88%A9%E7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【国内船主の今】(404)残価リスク 視界不良。船価高止まり、融資リスク増
2026/01/30(金)
日本海事新聞 JMD


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